I started this newsletter in January, so I decided to go back and review some of what I wrote to see if it held up. I say “some” because I choose to include only the posts that make me look smart/good/handsome/righteous.
So here goes:
On February 3, I wrote about the downfall of Facebook’s business model and the fact that the stock dropped 25% in one day. It has since dropped another 50%. To be fair to Facebook (I mean Meta), the whole market has fallen off a cliff this year, but Facebook (I mean Meta) is still off significantly more than the overall Nasdaq. Deservedly so, in my opinion. Facebook (the social media product) continues to undermine truth and democracy all over the world and Meta (the company) continues to profit as purveyors of online swill. And no, I was not brave enough to short Meta stock. If I were, I would be typing this from my private island. On Mars.
On March 7, I wrote about the Theranos fraud and Elizabeth Holmes, the criminal founder who is awaiting her prison sentence. Last week, her erstwhile boyfriend, COO and fellow fraudster Sunny Balwani, was criminally convicted in a Silicon Valley courtroom. They both deserve prison time. Do I think either of them will serve time? Yes, though it will not be the full 20 years they could serve. My guess: 2-5 years for Holmes and she’ll be out in 18 months. 5-7 years for Balwani and he is out in three. I should point out that I have no basis whatsoever for this prediction, so keep that in mind if you are going to Vegas and placing a bet.
On March 17, the topic was switching to permanent Daylight Saving Time and what a hugely stupid idea it was/is. There was a bill that had passed the Senate, but it seems like it sort of got lost on its way to the House. This is mere speculation on my part, but that may be because when people realized it was Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s idea, they ran from it like it was monkey pox. For now, it appears D.O.A.
The airline industry took some shrapnel in an April 8 post. I basically said it was the worst business in the history of human civilization and events since then have only borne this out. Summer travelers are experiencing record delays, cancellations, and horrifically bad customer service, all at all-time exorbitant prices. But don’t think for a second that this will reflect badly on the airline stocks when they report 2Q earnings. The truth is (as I spelled out in the post), we consumers continue to shovel our hard-earned money into airline tickets in exchange for being abused with ever-increasing levels of sadism, courtesy of the air carriers. It reminds me of a young Kevin Bacon, who in pledging the Omega fraternity in “Animal House”, is repeatedly paddled in the ass by a sadistic Neidermeyer, all the while saying “Thank you sir! May I have another?” That’s the modern air traveler. That is us.
On April 26, I wrote that there was a good chance that Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was NOT going to happen. As you probably heard, it’s not going to happen.
Or will it?
Since the deal was announced, the whole stock market, Twitter and Tesla stocks included, cratered. So, basically, Musk signed a contract to buy something for $44 billion that is now worth, maybe…$15-20 billion. And he was going to pay for it with currency (Tesla stock) that is now worth billions less than when he signed the contract. Now he wants out. But that’s not how contract law works. So hey-ho, it’s off to court they go. What will happen? Well, Musk is crazy and a bully and a douchebag and abusive and many other things, but he is the richest man in the world and he does have virtually unlimited resources to continue being a complete asswipe and ruining the lives of Twitter employees, shareholders and management. My guess: he will get out of the deal for something more than the $1 billion exit clause, but less than the $44 billion purchase price. I have a feeling Twitter’s board will take, say, $5 billion to just get Musk the fuck out of their lives. They will have a hard time justifying something like this to investors, who would much rather have the full $44 billion, but I don’t think there is a rational investor out there who thinks that:
1.) Elon Musk can be forced to buy something he no longer wants and
2.) In the long run, a few billion in cash and him going away isn’t way better than years of litigation that could permanently ruin the company.
So, stay tuned, but keep in mind that Elon Musk has made the complete transition from eccentric, brilliant billionaire inventor to monumental asshole, so anything is possible. He could very well pay a $5 billion “go away” fee (with spare change he finds in his sock drawer) and then come right back and make an offer for a lower price after Twitter’s stock crashes to $10-15. At that price, he could buy Twitter for, say $14 billion, plus the $5 billion “go away” fee. Shazam! He just saved $25 billion!On June 7, I discussed the five reasons my dog is a dick. They are all still true.
On June 23, I wrote about how long everything takes to build these days. As of this writing, our much-ballyhooed local Amazon Fresh store still has not opened. In addition, I forgot to mention the Dairy Queen, the first in the area, that was announced last year for a Spring 2022 grand opening. It’s about a 1/4 mile from the Amazon store and as of this writing, it is still not open. They’ve managed to put up a “Coming Spring 2022” sign out front, but as of this mid-July writing, it is otherwise still very much a construction site. My guess is that it will open just in time for people to buy a Blizzard to ring in the first snowstorm.
So, there you have it – an update of things consequential and banal. I’ll leave it to you to decide which is which.